19andMe

19andMe estimates individualized risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes by integrating geographic case data and published scientific evidence to produce quantitative estimates of exposure, hospitalization, intensive care unit admission, and mortality risk.

Key Features:

• Personalized Risk Assessment: Evaluates individual risk using geography, demographics, health conditions, and adherence to public health guidelines to generate exposure, hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality estimates.
• Evidence-Based Methodology: Integrates the latest scientific literature and geographic case data and is updated to reflect recent evidence.
• Validation and Consistency: Validation studies report mortality agreement with Nexoid within 10% for 98.5% of users and a Spearman correlation coefficient (rs) of 0.91 for mortality estimates.
• Correlation with Other Tools: Exposure risk estimates correlate with Nexoid (rs = 0.48), and predictions for hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality correlate with COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) (rs = 0.89, 0.87, and 0.93, respectively).

Scientific Applications:

• Individual risk management: Provides quantitative individualized risk estimates to inform personal risk-mitigation considerations.
• Public health communication: Supplies stratified risk estimates by geography and demographics to support population-level risk messaging and planning.
• Epidemiological research: Supports analyses of COVID-19 impact across populations and regions by combining geographic case data with literature-derived risk factors.
• Health informatics integration: Facilitates incorporation into research and public health workflows via programmatic integration for broader analytics and strategy development.

Methodology:

Integrates geographic case data and published evidence to compute personalized risk estimates for exposure, hospitalization, ICU admission, and mortality, with validation performed via comparisons to Nexoid and COVID-19 Estimated Risk (COVER) using Spearman correlation coefficients (exposure rs = 0.48; hospitalization rs = 0.89; ICU rs = 0.87; mortality rs = 0.93) and mortality agreement within 10% for 98.5% of users (mortality rs = 0.91).