Anchored Multiplier Calculator

Anchored Multiplier Calculator estimates consensus population sizes for hidden or hard-to-reach groups by synthesizing multiple empirical estimates under a Bayesian framework to inform public health research and intervention planning.

Key Features:

• Bayesian framework: Integrates multiple population size estimates using Bayes' Theorem to produce a posterior distribution representing a consensus estimate.
• Beta distribution conversion: Transforms user-provided point estimates with lower and upper bounds into beta probability distributions for each input estimate.
• Unlimited data input: Accepts and synthesizes an unrestricted number of empirical population size estimates across sources.
• Visual and tabular outputs: Produces a forest plot of input estimates alongside the consensus estimate and a detailed table reporting results as population percentages and counts.

Scientific Applications:

• Hidden population size estimation: Estimates sizes of hidden or hard-to-reach groups, including people who use drugs, sex workers, and individuals with stigmatized conditions.
• Public health planning and evaluation: Supports resource allocation, program planning, and evaluation of intervention outcomes by providing more reliable consensus estimates.

Methodology:

Convert point estimates with lower and upper bounds into beta distributions and combine those distributions using Bayes' Theorem to generate a posterior distribution representing the consensus population size estimate.