Census Travel

Census Travel predicts introduction sites of exotic plant, animal, and human pathogens via international travel networks using a probabilistic model to inform spatial risk estimation.

Key Features:

• Integration of diverse data sources: Combines endpoint census data, population demographics, epidemiological characteristics, and inbound and outbound international travel statistics.
• Quantification of source strength: Estimates and quantifies source-country strength to weight contributions to introduction risk.
• Probabilistic risk estimation: Uses a probabilistic approach to synthesize travel patterns and epidemiological inputs for predicting introduction scenarios.
• Multi-scale spatial resolution: Produces risk estimates and rankings at state, county, zip code, census tract, and gridded landscapes (e.g., 1 mi², 5 km²).
• Pathosystem independence: Operates independently of specific pathogen systems, enabling application across plant, human, and animal contagions.
• Risk ranking for surveillance prioritization: Ranks locations by estimated introduction risk to identify high-priority areas for targeted surveillance.

Scientific Applications:

• Surveillance program design: Informs development of pathogen surveillance programs by identifying likely introduction sites.
• Targeted monitoring: Generates detailed risk maps at multiple spatial scales to support focused monitoring efforts.
• Resource prioritization: Provides ranked risk outputs to guide allocation of surveillance and control resources.
• Cross-domain outbreak management: Supports early-detection and mitigation strategies for exotic pathogens across plant, animal, and human domains.

Methodology:

Census Travel applies a probabilistic model that synthesizes endpoint census data, epidemiological characteristics, and international travel patterns to quantify source-country strength and estimate spatial introduction risk.