SPAG

SPAG predicts the spatial probability distribution of adaptive genetic variants under current and projected future climatic conditions to inform conservation of species' adaptive potential.

Key Features:

• Genotype-Environment Associations: Uses genotype-environment logistic associations to map the probability of finding beneficial genetic variants across study areas.
• Univariate and Multivariate Models: Implements univariate models that predict single-genotype distributions and multivariate models that integrate multiple genotypes associated with environmental variables.
• Climate Change Projections Integration: Incorporates climate change projections to map future genotype distributions under projected climatic scenarios.
• Mismatch Analysis: Analyzes mismatches between current and future spatial areas of genotype probability (SPAGs) to identify populations likely better adapted to or at risk under future climates.
• Validation and Application: Validated using simulations and applied to goat populations in Morocco and Europe, identifying genomic regions associated with precipitation seasonality in Morocco and regions linked to low precipitation in Europe.

Scientific Applications:

• Conservation genetics and biodiversity management: Maps current and future distributions of adaptive variants to inform conservation strategies that incorporate adaptive potential.
• Population risk assessment: Identifies populations likely to be maladapted or resilient under projected climatic changes by comparing current and future SPAGs.
• Empirical genotype–environment research: Supports studies linking genotypes to bioclimatic variables, as exemplified by goat findings related to precipitation seasonality and low precipitation.

Methodology:

Computational methods explicitly include genotype-environment logistic associations, univariate and multivariate genotype distribution models, incorporation of climate change projections, mismatch analysis between current and future SPAGs, and validation using simulations.