C-CAT Mortality Prediction

C-CAT Mortality Prediction predicts early mortality risk for patients with gastrointestinal malignancies based on genomic profiling data from the Japanese C-CAT database.

Key Features:

• Risk Stratification: The prediction model stratifies patients into low-risk (6.1%), intermediate-risk (17.6%), high-risk (39.2%), and very high-risk (75.6%) groups based on weighted scoring of clinical factors.
• Prognostic Discrimination: The model achieves moderate discrimination with a C statistic of 0.70-0.73 across validation analyses.
• Survival Estimation: Median survival times after comprehensive genomic profiling submission are 384.0 days for low-risk, 199.0 days for intermediate-risk, 114.0 days for high-risk, and 48.0 days for very high-risk groups.

Scientific Applications:

• Patient Selection for Comprehensive Genomic Profiling: The model supports better patient selection and optimal timing of comprehensive genomic profiling in patients with gastrointestinal malignancies.
• Prognostic Stratification: Survival analysis assesses the utility of the model for prognostic stratification of patients with pancreatic, biliary, colorectal, and upper gastrointestinal cancers.

Methodology:

A prediction model was constructed via weighted scoring of clinical factors including cancer type (pancreatic/biliary), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG-PS) greater than or equal to 2, metastases, disease progression, and male sex, using data from 18,657 patients retrospectively analyzed from the C-CAT database; early mortality was defined as mortality within 90 days after comprehensive genomic profiling submission.