COVID19 Outbreak Simulator

COVID19 Outbreak Simulator simulates SARS-CoV-2 infection and transmission dynamics in heterogeneous populations to quantitatively assess the effectiveness of interventions such as quarantine, testing, social distancing, and varying community infection levels.

Key Features:

• Population-based forward-time simulation: Models SARS-CoV-2 infection courses and virus transmission under interventions such as quarantine, testing, social distancing, and varying community infection levels.
• Plugin-based customization: Provides a plugin system enabling user-defined operations and tailored simulation behaviors.
• Testing strategy evaluation: Evaluates the impact of SARS-CoV-2 testing schedules on quarantine durations and related outcomes.
• Quantitative scenario estimates: Produces quantitative estimates for COVID-19 outbreak scenarios to inform policy and risk-reduction strategies.
• Risk assessment and continuity planning: Supports organizational risk assessment and development of continuity plans through scenario simulation.
• Sensitivity analysis support: Performs sensitivity analyses to assess robustness of outcomes under different model assumptions.

Scientific Applications:

• Policy development: Provides data-driven estimates to assess the potential effectiveness of public health interventions.
• Testing strategy evaluation: Assesses how different SARS-CoV-2 testing schedules affect quarantine requirements and outcomes.
• Scenario and sensitivity analysis: Enables exploration of how changes in model assumptions alter predicted outbreak trajectories.
• Public health and operational planning: Informs emergency response plans and continuity planning for organizations during outbreaks.

Methodology:

The simulator employs statistical models parameterized by SARS-CoV-2 transmissibility and viral load data and incorporates testing method sensitivities, and it implements sensitivity analyses to evaluate robustness of outcomes under varying assumptions.