COVIDStrategyCalculator

COVIDStrategyCalculator evaluates non-pharmaceutical interventions and testing strategies for SARS-CoV-2 by quantifying residual infectious risk and the effects of quarantine, isolation, and testing on transmission potential.

Key Features:

• Residual Risk Assessment: Quantifies the probability that an individual released from quarantine or isolation remains infectious.
• Risk Reduction Analysis: Calculates the effectiveness of NPIs in reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission potential.
• Test Efficacy Evaluation: Assesses testing strategies by considering test sensitivity and timing relative to infection stages.
• User-Defined Strategy Evaluation: Evaluates arbitrary combinations of NPIs and testing strategies to simulate tailored scenarios.

Scientific Applications:

• Within-host viral dynamics modeling: Uses a stochastic within-host viral dynamics model to represent temporal attributes of SARS-CoV-2 infection, including test sensitivity, infectiousness, and symptom occurrence.
• Containment strategy evaluation: Simulates and compares quarantine, isolation, and testing regimens to estimate reductions in transmission potential for travelers, contact persons, and de-isolation decisions.
• Diagnostics and variant assessment: Enables hypothesis testing of novel diagnostics and the potential impact of emerging virus variants on containment measures.

Methodology:

Implements a recently published stochastic within-host viral-dynamics model to simulate temporal profiles of infectiousness, test sensitivity, and symptom onset and to compute residual risk, risk reduction, and test efficacy for specified NPI and testing strategies.