DDRP

DDRP models phenological events and climatic suitability for invasive insects across the conterminous United States using daily degree-days and temperature stress to inform assessments of invasive species, biocontrol agents, and Integrated Pest Management targets.

Key Features:

• Real-Time Mapping: Integrates phenology with climatic suitability to generate spatially explicit, time-resolved maps.
• Process-Based Modeling Approach: Calculates degree-days and temperature stress daily and accumulates them to simulate phenological events and climatic suitability.
• Flexible Parameterization: Accepts species parameter values derived from laboratory and field studies or estimated via an additional modeling step.
• Extensive Output Options: Produces predictions of number of completed generations, life stages present, dates of phenological events, and climatically suitable areas under two levels of climate stress.

Scientific Applications:

• Invasive Species Management: Supports detection and management by predicting potential spread and climatic suitability of invasive insects.
• Monitoring and Management Scheduling: Provides timing information for scheduling monitoring and control actions based on predicted phenological events.
• Optimization of Biological Control: Informs timing and deployment of biocontrol agents by predicting host and agent phenology.
• Impact Prediction on Agriculture: Forecasts potential impacts on agricultural production by combining life-stage presence and climatic suitability.
• Case Studies: Demonstrated for Epiphyas postvittana (light brown apple moth) and Neoleucinodes elegantalis (small tomato borer).

Methodology:

Implemented entirely in R, DDRP leverages multiple R packages to produce gridded and graphical outputs and uses daily calculations of degree-days and temperature stress to model phenological events and climatic suitability over time.