epiflows

epiflows estimates the risk of infectious disease spread via international travel by calculating expected introductions of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections to new locations.

Key Features:

• Risk Estimation: Calculates the expected number of symptomatic and asymptomatic infections introduced into new locations.
• Data Integration: Integrates cumulative case reports, population movement patterns, length of stay, and distributions of incubation and infectious periods.
• Statistical Analysis: Produces estimates with average values and confidence intervals.
• Geocoding and Visualization: Performs geocoding of locations and visualization of epidemiological risk outputs.

Scientific Applications:

• Travel-related risk assessment: Rapid assessment of potential hotspots and importation risk for travel-mediated disease spread.
• Yellow fever risk evaluation (Southeast Brazil, Dec 2016–May 2017): Applied to evaluate the risk of yellow fever transmission from Southeast Brazil between December 2016 and May 2017.

Methodology:

Integrates cumulative case reports, population movement patterns, length of stay, and incubation/infectious period distributions to model travel-mediated transmission and compute expected introductions with averages and confidence intervals; includes geocoding and visualization of results.