excessmort

excessmort estimates excess mortality by modeling deviations from expected mortality to quantify deaths above baseline during disasters and epidemics.

Key Features:

• Statistical Framework: Employs a flexible statistical model that accounts for demographic changes, secular trends, seasonal variation, day-of-the-week effects, and inherent natural fluctuations in mortality data.
• Smooth Functions with Discontinuities: Uses smooth functions of time while allowing discontinuities to capture sustained increases and sudden spikes in mortality.
• Dual Functionality: Supports surveillance of ongoing concerning increases in mortality and retrospective analysis of past events' effects.

Scientific Applications:

• Hurricanes in the United States and Puerto Rico: Applied to quantify excess deaths associated with events such as Hurricane Maria.
• Epidemiological Outbreaks: Used to detect and quantify excess mortality during outbreaks including the 2014 Chikungunya outbreak in Puerto Rico and the COVID-19 pandemic in the United States.

Methodology:

Uses a statistical model with smooth temporal functions that permit discontinuities and integrates demographic, secular, seasonal, day-of-week effects and natural variability to enhance detection of excess mortality.