MVSE

MVSE estimates a climate-driven suitability index for mosquito-borne viral transmission to quantify the timing and potential of epidemics caused by dengue, Zika, yellow fever, and chikungunya.

Key Features:

• Implementation: Implemented as an R package.
• Suitability index P: Calculates a novel suitability index P using a mathematical expression derived from the basic reproductive number (R0) within transmission dynamics models.
• Climate integration: Integrates local humidity and temperature into the suitability calculations.
• Biological priors: Incorporates biological priors related to the virus, mosquito vector, and human host.
• Host-virus specificity: Provides tailored estimates of transmission potential for specific host-virus combinations across diverse global regions.
• Target pathogens: Applicable to dengue, Zika, yellow fever, and chikungunya viruses.
• Theoretical grounding: Based on established transmission dynamics models and theoretical foundations.
• Empirical support: Outputs are supported by empirical data and demonstrated with real-world epidemiological examples.
• Biological interpretation: Produces outputs with clear biological interpretations relevant to transmission dynamics.

Scientific Applications:

• Epidemic potential estimation: Estimates how climatic factors influence the timing and potential of epidemics for dengue, Zika, yellow fever, and chikungunya.
• Local transmission assessment: Provides estimates of local transmission potential across diverse global regions.
• Public health planning: Informs public health preparedness and the design of control strategies against mosquito-borne viral diseases.
• Comparative analyses: Enables comparison of transmission suitability across different host-virus combinations.

Methodology:

Calculates the index P via a mathematical expression derived from R0 within established transmission dynamics models, integrating local humidity and temperature with biological priors for virus, vector, and human host, implemented in R.