zplan

zplan optimizes breeding programs using a deterministic single-selection-cycle approach to evaluate genetic and economic efficiency.

Key Features:

• Deterministic Approach: Employs a deterministic methodology to assess breeding strategies within a single selection cycle.
• Genetic and Economic Evaluation: Simultaneously evaluates expected genetic gain and economic impacts of breeding scenarios.
• Scenario Analysis: Compares alternative scenarios such as intra-herd use versus centralized mating stations to estimate outcomes.
• Selection Criterion Identification: Uses model calculations to identify greasy fleece weight and fibre diameter as primary selection criteria.
• Assessment of Genetic Progress and Inbreeding: Estimates achievable genetic progress and predicts inbreeding rates, reported between 0.08% and 0.32% per generation.

Scientific Applications:

• Breeding program design in low-resource settings: Applied to design structured breeding programs where formal programs are absent, exemplified by llama initiatives in Ayopaya, Cochabamba, Bolivia.
• Fleece trait improvement: Guides selection schemes to increase greasy fleece weight while maintaining fleece quality via fibre diameter control.
• Mating strategy evaluation: Assesses effects of mass selection of males, exchange between farmers, or central mating stations on selection intensity and genetic progress.
• Inbreeding estimation and management: Provides expected inbreeding rate estimates per generation to inform mitigation strategies.

Methodology:

Applies deterministic model calculations to identify selection criteria (greasy fleece weight, fibre diameter), compares mass-selection mating scenarios (intra-herd exchange vs. centralized mating station), and computes expected genetic progress and inbreeding rates (0.08–0.32% per generation).