Coronavirus conspiracies continue
The great leap of coronavirus
Two days before the Valentine’s day 2020, the world is greeted with the news of a huge jump in the number of infections, 15,199 new cases. To be exact, it is 7.4 times higher than the previous day, which only recorded 2,041 new infections.
The lion’s share of the cases is in China. Love is not in the air but probably fear and panic dominate our feelings because a discussion on coronavirus during dinner is not exactly romantic.
Why is the jump in the number of cases so high? According to this source in dw.com, “…health officials announced Thursday they had begun including people diagnosed using new clinical methods…”.
They continued to say the new diagnosis now include lung imaging to confirm suspected cases. For those who have taken an introductory course in Epidemiology, you should be able to recognise that the change in diagnosis is probably the main contributor for the rise of cases. Therefore, this should not be a cause for alarm.
However, there is potentially more to this story according to pandemics expert, Laurie Garrett, who spoke to CNN on her concerns that the rise in cases probably reflect a backlog in testing and the lack of test kits.
What is the exact number of infections?
The sharp rise in the number of new cases supports the suspicion that the true number of cases is much higher than the official statistic. Perhaps the infection rates are under control and the Chinese authority decided to be more transparent now? After all, greater transparency helps everyone to be more informed and track the disease.
It was previously revealed that a local Chinese, Fang Bin had accidentally videoed eight dead bodies outside a hospital in Wuhan (video 1). Another Chinese, Chen Qiushi (video 2) had also released shocking videos of the situation, which made the official statistics on the true number of infections hard to believe because more people seem to be affected than the official narrative. No one seems to know his whereabout now.
A Chinese billionaire and exile, Guo Wengui, has probably put forward the most shocking claim that the true infection figure is probably 1.5 million cases and 50,000 deaths in Wuhan. The source of his information was apparently from China based on the crematoriums estimate, which has been running 24/7.
Garbage in, Garbage Out
In Data Science, there is a concept of Garbage in, Garbage out (GIGO), which says flawed input data produces garbage output. No sophisticated algorithms or models will be able to ‘correct’ for incorrect input data. Sure, one may want to intelligently adjust the input data but on what basis can we adjust it?
Imagine trying to achieve scientific breakthrough while constantly being given the wrong dataset. We must interpret the results from such data with sceptical minds. This brings to mind the “wisdom of the crowd” that says the average guesses of ordinary folks will probably beat individual guesses by experts.
Perhaps a website that let individuals to make their guesses on the number of infections and the average from their guesses will be more informative? Anyway, the point is no one really knows the true number of infections.
Origin of the coronavirus
In the previous post, the possibility of organised bioterrorism and natural outbreak were considered. Feedback from some readers suggest more possibilities and below is a list:
- 1. A natural outbreak and cover up.
- 2. Intended bioweapon release by the Chinese government.
- 3. Intended bioweapon release by an enemy of the Chinese government
In reality, the list is endless because it is up to one’s imagination to think about possibilities. The first point on natural outbreak is covered previously.
An attack on its own citizens?
The idea of the Chinese government intentionally attacking its own people is unlikely. As discussed, the evolutionary trajectory of the virus is hard to predict and if the outcome is to ignite nationalists against a common enemy, it seems like a rather ridiculous idea.
The Wuhan Institute of Virology is near ground zero of the outbreak and as such, it is all too easy for people to link it to the Chinese government as being responsible. The economic damage is severe and instead of uniting people against the enemy, it could backfire and unleash anger to the government. Besides, the ad hoc construction of the two hospitals (Leishenshan and Huoshenshan) seem like a last-minute emergency response under panic rather than planned.
An attack to bring down the global economy?
As to the possibility of an enemy releasing an attack to the Chinese regime, this is likely. The attacker is unlikely to be a rogue scientist because a rational thinking person releasing virus at the worst time in the worst place to kill innocent people does not seem to fit the profile.
Besides, what is there to be gained by this individual? Instead let’s try the “Follow the money” approach. It’s not possible to study the trail of money leading to the outbreak for now and there is supposed to be no trail as it is natural. However, we can study the financial effects after the outbreak.
If an organised group wish to bring down the world economy, when and where should they attack? The global debt level has never been higher even since we are on worldwide fiat monetary system. The last global financial crisis was about 12 years ago.
One can argue the timing is right. What can be the trigger? An outbreak at a place and time when most Chinese travelled and let their guard down?
Indeed, some have suggested that this could be the black swan event affecting supply chain and bring the economic engine to a halt. For example, the US is dependent on China for pharmaceuticals and interruptions to the supply chain can be disastrous to the Americans.
While it is not possible to precisely map the trajectory of the infections, perhaps it is possible to predict the Wuhan outbreak will crash the global economy. The time to gain wealth is when there is blood on the streets.
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